Rhys Williams has analysed Tuesday’s racing and recommends selections at Southwell, Dundalk and Newcastle.
- Selection can travel sweeter in first time blinkers
- Good apprentice in the saddle
- Brividi is overpriced w/o the favourite at Newcastle
Southwell – 13:22 – Back Flamborough Head
Flamborough Head makes his third start in this maiden and I think the market is making too much of the idea that he may be seen to better effect in handicaps after this.
He caught the eye on debut at Redcar in a moderate maiden when getting no run in the closing stages. Having been drawn furthest from the favoured far rail, he was slowly away and then manoeuvred to race against the far rail in last place. He made headway and was travelling strongly in behind rivals two furlongs out but he could never get a clear path from that point and finished ninth.
On his second start at York, Flamborough Head raced very keenly early on in midfield. He was still travelling well three furlongs out and made some headway, despite finding trouble in running, before the effort flattened out in the final furlong.
It may be that he will once again race keener than ideal in the early stages as he returns from a 172-day break. But the promise that he showed in those two starts last year suggests he could run well at a big price in a race of this quality. Any 16/1 or bigger appeals.
Dundalk – 14:30 – Back Pavilion End
Pavilion End makes his flat debut this afternoon having had three starts in bumpers and I think he could be better suited to the test of this all weather maiden than what he was faced with in bumpers.
He ran poorly on debut at Punchestown but showed more in his next two starts. At Cork, he went down the inside the whole way, which may not have been the ideal place to be, and raced handily before fading late on to finish sixth (while the winner took a similar path on the last circuit, he is now joint favourite for the Champion Bumper so maybe taking that line diminished his superiority over the field).
Pavilion End was once again ridden prominently at Roscommon and he travelled strongly into the home straight in a share of the lead, before not finding much late on, and finished seventh.
It might be that he is just weak off the bridle but I think the ground was softer than ideal for him on both of those starts. His dam’s two victories were on an artificial surface and Pavilion End’s action suggests he could be better suited by this surface. He could improve for the switch to it.
There is the unknown over how he will come out of the stalls on his flat debut and it might be that he isn’t up to this level but the market is overlooking his potential for improvement and any 25/1 or bigger appeals.
Newcastle – 15:38 – Back Brividi
Jujubella stretched away well when winning at this track last time and the further step up in trip could bring more improvement from her in this hands and heels contest. Rather than take her on, there’s an appealing bet in the without the favourite market.
Brividi has blinkers on for the first time today and that could bring improvement from her. She wasn’t far behind Come On John at Southwell two starts ago, and Brividi wasn’t always travelling too sweetly that day, so the application of blinkers could help her cause.
The way the race panned out over a longer trip at Lingfield did not suit her last time and this track is likely to be more suitable for her. She also has the benefit of having Fred Daly in the saddle and, while Jujubella may be a class above these, the market is underestimating the chance of Brividi being her main danger. Any 6/1 or bigger appeals in the without the favourite market.
Recommended bets
Back Flamborough Head in the 13:22 at Southwell 0.5pt e/w @ 35/1
Back Pavilion End in the 14:30 at Dundalk 0.5pt win @ 40/1
Back Brividi in the 15:38 at Newcastle 1pt win w/o the favourite @ 8/1
